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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 33 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 23 games
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 21 game
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 20 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
72%

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 27 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 26 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 21 game
52%
Magnus
Magnussignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 20 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
53%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
475 picks · 453 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 511 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
430 picks · 200 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
327 picks · 581 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
288 picks · 403 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
284 picks · 604 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
277 picks · 176 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
262 picks · 74 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:29
Aurora Gaming 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linakiyotaka
45% · 165 games51% · 172 games
TerrorbladeGhost
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNightfall
47% · 193 games50% · 170 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 448 games50% · 224 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
55% · 132 games45% · 245 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Oracle
OraclePanto
62% · 53 games51% · 180 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct26:17
Aurora Gaming 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
52% · 128 games44% · 368 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
54% · 374 games48% · 67 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Enigma
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
62% · 112 games41% · 40 games
BloodseekerGhost
Bloodseeker
Oracle
OraclePanto
63% · 38 games45% · 298 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
51% · 207 games44% · 86 games
SilencerGH
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed11:39
Aurora Gaming 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
38% · 146 games59% · 100 games
SlarkGhost
Slark
Bristleback
BristlebackTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 175 games55% · 246 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiritkiyotaka
53% · 72 games61% · 35 games
UndyingNo!ob
Undying
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
50% · 41 game57% · 74 games
Naga SirenGH
Naga Siren
Batrider
BatriderMira
37% · 230 games51% · 209 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 77%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3