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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 33 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 30 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 26 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
71%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
52%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
32%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 20 games
30%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
GH · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 928 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 415 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
472 picks · 618 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 574 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 942 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
402 picks · 247 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 660 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 441 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total82% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:17
Aurora Gaming 72%Nigma Galaxy 28%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorNightfall
59% · 68 games50% · 275 games
Dragon Knightrincyq
Dragon Knight
Huskar
HuskarLorenof
57% · 94 games56% · 47 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
53% · 415 games43% · 224 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 189 games45% · 181 game
DisruptorGH
Disruptor
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
49% · 78 games45% · 117 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct45:16
Aurora Gaming 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
52% · 47 games53% · 268 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Puck
PuckLorenof
48% · 385 games51% · 80 games
Razorrincyq
Razor
Mars
MarsWs
45% · 210 games52% · 385 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
46% · 166 games49% · 211 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Warlock
WarlockKaori
50% · 220 games57% · 84 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 82%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2