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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 37 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
74%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 22 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 21 game
67%

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 19 games
37%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 13 games
54%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 638 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 248 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
466 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
401 picks · 855 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
385 picks · 440 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
380 picks · 567 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 331 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 835 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 34%
Hero pool strength61% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:49
Aurora Gaming 74%OG 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by OG in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
52% · 242 games40% · 72 games
UnderlordShad
Underlord
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
54% · 404 games52% · 106 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Axe
AxeTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 55 games50% · 400 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPanto
51% · 254 games49% · 324 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
53% · 240 games48% · 293 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct32:9
Aurora Gaming 73%OG 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 22:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
48% · 137 games55% · 84 games
LycanShad
Lycan
Batrider
Batriderkiyotaka
48% · 375 games50% · 438 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 260 games47% · 144 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnaPanto
52% · 132 games46% · 236 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
54% · 229 games46% · 231 game
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct36:4
Aurora Gaming 73%OG 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightNightfall
55% · 31 game52% · 95 games
Troll WarlordShad
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 319 games50% · 259 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 221 game42% · 107 games
AbaddonMikSa`
Abaddon
Riki
RikiMira
51% · 37 games52% · 79 games
Keeper of the LightDaze
Keeper of the Light
Batrider
BatriderPanto
51% · 204 games42% · 272 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 87%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3