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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 34 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Panto · 25 games
76%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 21 game
57%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
39%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
35%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 16 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 15 games
47%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
353 picks · 324 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 831 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
304 picks · 154 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
289 picks · 325 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 776 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
277 picks · 246 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
270 picks · 124 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
265 picks · 171 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
Aurora Gaming 72%OG 28%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
55% · 42 games42% · 85 games
AbaddonShad
Abaddon
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
49% · 227 games49% · 175 games
Shadow FiendStojkov
Shadow Fiend
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
58% · 307 games42% · 190 games
MarsMikSa`
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
51% · 192 games49% · 271 game
TinyDaze
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
54% · 173 games53% · 220 games
PhoenixLelis
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct31:25
Aurora Gaming 70%OG 30%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 50:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
46% · 123 games49% · 65 games
Troll WarlordShad
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightkiyotaka
47% · 294 games54% · 293 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 206 games44% · 215 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
45% · 209 games54% · 236 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
48% · 193 games58% · 216 games
PhoenixLelis
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 84%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2