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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 53 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 47 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 47 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 42 games
76%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 42 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 34 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
72%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 32 games
59%

OG

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 29 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 28 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 28 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 24 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 19 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 19 games
32%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
684 picks · 838 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
590 picks · 610 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 422 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
485 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
421 picks · 1104 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1025 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 697 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 623 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:15
Aurora Gaming 68%OG 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
48% · 242 games49% · 354 games
BeastmasterNatsumi
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordWs
54% · 199 games50% · 436 games
Void SpiritYopaj
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckMikoto
48% · 579 games46% · 163 games
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
47% · 117 games59% · 128 games
Keeper of the LightSkem
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
52% · 287 games48% · 343 games
Shadow ShamanTims
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Aurora Gaming 67%OG 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 24:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
49% · 258 games51% · 361 game
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
Marci
MarciNightfall
52% · 233 games51% · 211 games
MuertaNatsumi
Muerta
Puck
PuckMikoto
51% · 487 games48% · 523 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
52% · 363 games46% · 201 game
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
54% · 335 games47% · 380 games
Shadow ShamanTims
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 75%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2