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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 41 game
51%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 33 games
61%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 32 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
65%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 39 games
74%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 29 games
83%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 24 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
74%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 23 games
78%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 22 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
493 picks · 529 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 458 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 358 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
347 picks · 198 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
344 picks · 725 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 460 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
307 picks · 195 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total72% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:28
Aurora Gaming 37%PARIVISION 63%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
44% · 50 games51% · 123 games
SvenSatanic
Sven
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
42% · 183 games55% · 120 games
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
Void Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 92 games62% · 34 games
DazzleDM
Dazzle
Batrider
BatriderMira
49% · 152 games61% · 127 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Pugna
PugnaPanto
44% · 41 game47% · 114 games
Marci9Class
Marci
Game 2prediction missed26:15
Aurora Gaming 38%PARIVISION 62%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
48% · 85 games36% · 7 games
Phantom LancerSatanic
Phantom Lancer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
47% · 89 games54% · 245 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 138 games57% · 114 games
Ogre MagiDM
Ogre Magi
Batrider
BatriderPanto
46% · 227 games47% · 199 games
Shadow Shaman9Class
Shadow Shaman
Rubick
RubickMira
47% · 85 games56% · 59 games
BaneDukalis
Bane
Game 3prediction correct6:22
Aurora Gaming 34%PARIVISION 66%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
51% · 386 games52% · 226 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
49% · 199 games53% · 255 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 184 games49% · 362 games
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Tusk
TuskMira
43% · 479 games54% · 355 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
45% · 80 games58% · 130 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 72%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3