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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 37 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 34 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 29 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 28 games
57%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 28 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
74%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 26 games
65%

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 25 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 19 games
84%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 16 games
81%
Invoker
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 14 games
43%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 14 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Dukalis · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
635 picks · 985 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 441 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 633 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 1027 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 478 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 268 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 513 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 567 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total56% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:11
Aurora Gaming 55%PARIVISION 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
52% · 161 game49% · 59 games
KezSatanic
Kez
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLorenof
48% · 276 games48% · 320 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Largo
LargoWs
56% · 66 games46% · 192 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
51% · 253 games51% · 179 games
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Ancient Apparition
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
52% · 143 games46% · 149 games
Marci9Class
Marci
Game 2prediction missed11:44
Aurora Gaming 54%PARIVISION 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
51% · 120 games49% · 236 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Largo
LargoWs
52% · 67 games50% · 331 game
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
48% · 360 games50% · 159 games
Primal BeastSSS
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
50% · 652 games50% · 462 games
RingmasterDukalis
Ringmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
48% · 336 games52% · 347 games
Shadow Demon9Class
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2