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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 46 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 30 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 29 games
72%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 28 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 18 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 10 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 8 games
75%
Kez
Kezoften banned
rincyq · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 7 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
aik · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
471 picks · 288 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
325 picks · 130 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 141 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
308 picks · 453 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 423 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
286 picks · 291 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 211 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
264 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:37
Aurora Gaming 70%Pipsqueak+4 30%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 39:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaStojkov
49% · 124 games51% · 262 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 404 games48% · 313 games
Kezrincyq
Kez
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSkiter
47% · 267 games52% · 399 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 663 games40% · 385 games
Dark WillowEkki
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKaori
57% · 209 games52% · 308 games
Miranaaik
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct61:59
Aurora Gaming 71%Pipsqueak+4 29%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:16:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosWs
51% · 113 games51% · 248 games
Shadow Fiendrincyq
Shadow Fiend
Lina
LinaStojkov
46% · 144 games52% · 173 games
UndyingMalik
Undying
Sven
SvenSkiter
54% · 97 games52% · 299 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKaori
51% · 618 games55% · 82 games
Lichaik
Lich
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
49% · 76 games42% · 246 games
Dark WillowEkki
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct53:35
Aurora Gaming 71%Pipsqueak+4 29%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 52:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
50% · 194 games49% · 327 games
Kezrincyq
Kez
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
49% · 84 games44% · 220 games
UndyingMalik
Undying
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
54% · 376 games46% · 519 games
SnapfireCopy
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
53% · 299 games45% · 359 games
Dark WillowEkki
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
53% · 657 games58% · 185 games
Winter Wyvernaik
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 85%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3