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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 32 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 26 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 22 games
77%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mira · 19 games
63%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 45 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 40 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 39 games
74%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 34 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 33 games
45%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
503 picks · 262 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
472 picks · 474 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 977 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
299 picks · 146 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
298 picks · 490 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 507 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
290 picks · 618 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:45
Aurora Gaming 64%Runa Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 59:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
49% · 233 games52% · 135 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
50% · 377 games55% · 232 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
52% · 209 games43% · 114 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Marci
MarciTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 150 games51% · 337 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Bane
BaneOli
51% · 117 games45% · 268 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed17:33
Aurora Gaming 64%Runa Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Runa Team in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
53% · 143 games48% · 180 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
46% · 281 game46% · 208 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 353 games56% · 96 games
Night StalkerAlberkaaa
Night Stalker
Ringmaster
RingmasterMira
51% · 163 games51% · 528 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
53% · 141 game52% · 69 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct34:20
Aurora Gaming 62%Runa Team 38%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 324 games52% · 348 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Marci
MarciNightfall
43% · 194 games52% · 210 games
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckMikoto
50% · 356 games61% · 115 games
Night StalkerAlberkaaa
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
46% · 204 games50% · 393 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOli
48% · 230 games51% · 242 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 77%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3