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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 21 game
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 19 games
32%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 18 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 17 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
60%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 48 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Htrd · 43 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 37 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 25 games
84%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 24 games
54%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
565 picks · 697 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 348 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 663 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 542 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
404 picks · 191 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 520 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 515 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:42
Aurora Gaming 64%Rune Eaters 36%
The model gave 64% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNightfall
38% · 33 games58% · 141 game
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
46% · 233 games52% · 173 games
PuckEthereal
Puck
Axe
AxeWs
44% · 194 games57% · 150 games
SlardarAnkou
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
40% · 170 games60% · 105 games
Undyingmonodrama
Undying
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
65% · 15 games54% · 76 games
Windrangerani-san
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct39:9
Aurora Gaming 67%Rune Eaters 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 22:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
54% · 212 games50% · 218 games
Templar Assassinyowaai
Templar Assassin
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
52% · 198 games51% · 172 games
SlardarAnkou
Slardar
Tiny
TinyMikoto
50% · 444 games49% · 351 game
Dragon KnightEthereal
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
45% · 255 games52% · 88 games
Crystal Maidenmonodrama
Crystal Maiden
Undying
UndyingKaori
51% · 150 games47% · 430 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed31:31
Aurora Gaming 65%Rune Eaters 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 48:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
53% · 202 games53% · 256 games
Templar Assassinyowaai
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMikoto
43% · 123 games50% · 120 games
KunkkaAnkou
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
47% · 240 games58% · 325 games
Ember SpiritEthereal
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
47% · 210 games54% · 308 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlockKaori
46% · 307 games48% · 73 games
Ogre Magimonodrama
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 80%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3