PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Shopify Rebellion
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 214 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 629 bans
Batrider
418 picks · 736 bans
Rubick
397 picks · 159 bans
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 554 bans
Gyrocopter
386 picks · 330 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 745 bans
Mars
340 picks · 551 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:28
Aurora Gaming 50%Shopify Rebellion 50%
The model gave 50% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:35.
Game 2prediction correct13:39
Aurora Gaming 50%Shopify Rebellion 50%
The model gave 50% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 53:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 50%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2