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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 41 game
51%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 31 game
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 27 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
72%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Timado · 16 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 15 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 548 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
442 picks · 234 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
440 picks · 488 bans
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
399 picks · 302 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 360 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
372 picks · 821 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 522 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 530 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:41
Aurora Gaming 59%Shopify Rebellion 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 58:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
52% · 166 games48% · 89 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Tiny
TinyNightfall
48% · 230 games50% · 305 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
57% · 62 games41% · 87 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
52% · 147 games44% · 320 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Batrider
BatriderPanto
50% · 275 games61% · 79 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Game 2prediction correct33:12
Aurora Gaming 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
44% · 157 games62% · 125 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
45% · 98 games50% · 180 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 237 games51% · 113 games
Queen of PainYopaj
Queen of Pain
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
45% · 297 games48% · 121 game
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Oracle
OraclePanto
60% · 33 games52% · 283 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct41:47
Aurora Gaming 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 53:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
36% · 6 games46% · 290 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
51% · 207 games47% · 155 games
TimbersawYopaj
Timbersaw
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 184 games58% · 123 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
53% · 154 games47% · 222 games
LionHellscream
Lion
Batrider
BatriderPanto
44% · 294 games60% · 55 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 64%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3