?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 14 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 14 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
31%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 11 games
82%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
47%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 14 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 497 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
380 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 553 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 388 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
317 picks · 725 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
314 picks · 154 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
294 picks · 410 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total57% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:17
Aurora Gaming 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 48:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPalos
50% · 317 games60% · 35 games
SpectreNatsumi
Spectre
Puck
PuckAbed
59% · 235 games48% · 402 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
50% · 269 games51% · 216 games
MagnusWs
Magnus
Lion
LionQ
49% · 301 game46% · 266 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Lich
LichOli
52% · 91 game44% · 294 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct6:30
Aurora Gaming 43%Talon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPalos
52% · 180 games47% · 153 games
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAbed
59% · 61 game44% · 61 game
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaJabz
47% · 77 games46% · 108 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyQ
54% · 170 games52% · 125 games
ChenKuku
Chen
Lich
LichOli
45% · 49 games52% · 90 games
Nyx AssassinJhocam
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed28:13
Aurora Gaming 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperAbed
54% · 119 games48% · 222 games
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Dragon Knight
Slark
SlarkPalos
58% · 43 games45% · 129 games
Earth SpiritMikoto
Earth Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJabz
50% · 112 games44% · 149 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
51% · 205 games43% · 28 games
Bounty HunterJhocam
Bounty Hunter
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQ
59% · 88 games52% · 39 games
LichKuku
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 57%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3