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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 37 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 36 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 29 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 29 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 26 games
88%

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 29 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
629 picks · 993 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 440 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 637 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 491 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
450 picks · 1053 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
441 picks · 278 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
421 picks · 581 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 510 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:20
Aurora Gaming 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
55% · 202 games50% · 306 games
WindrangerSkiter
Windranger
Viper
ViperLorenof
48% · 105 games51% · 54 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
57% · 339 games50% · 376 games
MarsATF
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
47% · 506 games51% · 363 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionMira
37% · 73 games51% · 126 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed41:7
Aurora Gaming 48%Team Falcons 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
47% · 244 games52% · 128 games
KezSkiter
Kez
Razor
RazorLorenof
47% · 78 games56% · 273 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Mars
MarsWs
44% · 303 games52% · 180 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
48% · 517 games54% · 417 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Lion
LionMira
43% · 61 game55% · 205 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 51%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2