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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 50 games
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 46 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 46 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 36 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 31 game
74%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 31 game
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 29 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 26 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 24 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 509 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
529 picks · 409 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
493 picks · 249 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 542 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
465 picks · 400 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 916 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 980 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
384 picks · 233 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total55% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:12
Aurora Gaming 54%Team Falcons 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidNightfall
48% · 13 games46% · 234 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
46% · 343 games51% · 230 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Largo
LargoWs
61% · 73 gameslittle data
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Warlock
WarlockKaori
46% · 308 games55% · 263 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Lion
LionMira
41% · 71 game60% · 81 game
SilencerSneyking
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct31:27
Aurora Gaming 55%Team Falcons 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 48:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
54% · 86 games53% · 83 games
KezSkiter
Kez
Puck
PuckMikoto
50% · 399 games46% · 244 games
BatriderMalr1ne
Batrider
Largo
LargoWs
55% · 94 games50% · 112 games
AxeATF
Axe
Venomancer
VenomancerKaori
49% · 77 games49% · 311 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickMira
46% · 186 games54% · 92 games
SilencerSneyking
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 55%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2