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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 28 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 23 games
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 22 games
77%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 19 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 16 games
50%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 41 game
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 36 games
72%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 26 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 21 game
43%
Silencer
Silencersignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
498 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 568 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
414 picks · 198 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
320 picks · 570 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
281 picks · 397 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
277 picks · 167 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
271 picks · 583 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
265 picks · 472 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:47
Aurora Gaming 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:07:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
56% · 214 games44% · 145 games
MedusaSabeRLight-
Medusa
Timbersaw
Timbersawkiyotaka
49% · 204 games49% · 73 games
LunaV-Tune
Luna
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 119 games47% · 374 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
54% · 102 games52% · 96 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
56% · 123 games47% · 74 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Game 2prediction correct13:35
Aurora Gaming 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
49% · 199 games52% · 369 games
TinyV-Tune
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 172 games50% · 149 games
BatriderNisha
Batrider
Kunkka
Kunkkakiyotaka
42% · 142 games54% · 245 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
51% · 385 games54% · 213 games
RingmasteriNSaNiA
Ringmaster
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMira
52% · 177 games51% · 99 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed49:25
Aurora Gaming 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
49% · 532 games42% · 459 games
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Dragon Knight
Enigma
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
60% · 168 games51% · 225 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
43% · 388 games51% · 400 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPanto
52% · 162 games55% · 186 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
TuskMira
50% · 322 games47% · 302 games
InvokerBoxi
Invoker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3