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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 35 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 33 games
76%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 32 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 24 games
63%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 38 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 29 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 27 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
551 picks · 577 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
383 picks · 225 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 423 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 331 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 492 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 861 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
317 picks · 681 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
309 picks · 874 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total60% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
Aurora Gaming 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
49% · 106 games56% · 268 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
57% · 99 games48% · 191 game
AbaddonmiCKe
Abaddon
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
52% · 233 games53% · 89 games
LycanSabeRLight-
Lycan
Batrider
BatriderMira
45% · 406 games45% · 294 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Silencer
SilencerPanto
48% · 110 games47% · 112 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct25:48
Aurora Gaming 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
50% · 302 games51% · 59 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Leshrac
Leshrackiyotaka
50% · 112 games50% · 209 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 113 games43% · 127 games
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Timbersaw
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
52% · 198 games53% · 131 game
PugnaiNSaNiA
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
55% · 111 games51% · 310 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 60%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2