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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 50 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 48 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 46 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 42 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 37 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 36 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 33 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 31 game
81%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 38 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 32 games
66%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ekki · 24 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boxi · 24 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
65%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
tOfu · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
503 picks · 299 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 570 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 344 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
417 picks · 315 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 317 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
356 picks · 194 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 839 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 842 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Aurora Gaming 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
52% · 387 games49% · 308 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckMikoto
53% · 532 games45% · 484 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusWs
57% · 87 games50% · 331 game
PangolierAce
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
52% · 254 games51% · 169 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Lion
LionMira
50% · 85 games41% · 53 games
IoBoxi
Io
Game 2prediction missed15:44
Aurora Gaming 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
56% · 184 games49% · 103 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
54% · 299 games41% · 347 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Largo
LargoWs
61% · 94 games50% · 331 game
SlardarAce
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
51% · 422 games44% · 96 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Oracle
OracleKaori
50% · 43 games43% · 165 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed17:34
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
53% · 225 games47% · 110 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordWs
48% · 246 games45% · 313 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
52% · 390 games57% · 254 games
SlardarAce
Slardar
Rubick
RubickMira
45% · 305 games57% · 386 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Oracle
OracleKaori
46% · 44 games48% · 147 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3