DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 15 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 10 games
Doomsignature
yamich · 10 games
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
375 picks · 327 bans
Centaur Warrunner
332 picks · 480 bans
Vengeful Spirit
328 picks · 316 bans
Pangolier
276 picks · 399 bans
Mars
269 picks · 369 bans
Techies
266 picks · 184 bans
Hoodwink
261 picks · 144 bans
Tiny
255 picks · 187 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:8
Aurora Gaming 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:33.
Game 2prediction correct27:22
Aurora Gaming 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 53:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2