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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 38 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 26 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 37 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 25 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
59%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 626 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
492 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
451 picks · 400 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
420 picks · 465 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
408 picks · 851 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
385 picks · 566 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
384 picks · 356 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 533 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 6
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
Aurora Gaming 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 159 games55% · 248 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
47% · 317 games52% · 256 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
43% · 109 games56% · 55 games
Death ProphetCollapse
Death Prophet
Oracle
OraclePanto
50% · 51 game51% · 161 game
RingmasterMiposhka
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskMira
46% · 366 games54% · 282 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct43:49
Aurora Gaming 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 55:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
48% · 78 games53% · 197 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Tiny
TinyNightfall
44% · 315 games49% · 148 games
Queen of PainLarl
Queen of Pain
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
43% · 96 games52% · 210 games
DawnbreakerCollapse
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderPanto
51% · 248 games55% · 216 games
Shadow Shamanrue
Shadow Shaman
Marci
MarciMira
50% · 82 games57% · 48 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2