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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 50 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 48 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 33 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 33 games
76%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 27 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 23 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 18 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
56%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
513 picks · 309 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
484 picks · 576 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 352 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
403 picks · 302 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
374 picks · 205 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 308 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 850 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 848 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total57% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:40
Aurora Gaming 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
53% · 145 games46% · 86 games
KezYatoro
Kez
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
50% · 374 games57% · 59 games
LargoCollapse
Largo
Magnus
MagnusWs
51% · 44 games46% · 333 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Silencer
SilencerKaori
54% · 97 games42% · 61 game
Techiesnot me
Techies
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMira
50% · 169 games52% · 290 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed18:33
Aurora Gaming 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
46% · 302 games50% · 213 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
60% · 67 games51% · 113 games
AlchemistYatoro
Alchemist
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
52% · 191 game49% · 224 games
Primal BeastLarl
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
47% · 167 games50% · 206 games
Dark Willownot me
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickMira
47% · 140 games49% · 111 games
Grimstrokerue
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 57%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2