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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Yandexwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 22 games
55%

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Marci
Marcioften banned
prblms · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
544 picks · 276 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
492 picks · 499 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
372 picks · 1017 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
334 picks · 381 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
319 picks · 153 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
318 picks · 536 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
318 picks · 148 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
308 picks · 502 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:39
Aurora Gaming 65%Team Yandex 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 54:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
42% · 264 games55% · 256 games
Nature's ProphetWatson
Nature's Prophet
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNightfall
48% · 81 game51% · 381 game
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
58% · 282 games47% · 371 game
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskMira
50% · 497 games50% · 204 games
EnchantressMalady
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroOli
52% · 288 games48% · 200 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct26:24
Aurora Gaming 65%Team Yandex 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 56:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
55% · 194 games53% · 147 games
UrsaWatson
Ursa
Leshrac
LeshracMikoto
58% · 140 games45% · 334 games
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 223 games45% · 109 games
UndyingNoticed
Undying
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
46% · 281 game50% · 176 games
EnchantressMalady
Enchantress
Warlock
WarlockOli
50% · 246 games48% · 318 games
Snapfireprblms
Snapfire
Game 3prediction missed26:31
Aurora Gaming 67%Team Yandex 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
56% · 186 games54% · 233 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMikoto
48% · 197 games52% · 169 games
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Leshrac
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 236 games46% · 369 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskMira
51% · 409 games45% · 184 games
Shadow DemonMalady
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroOli
49% · 218 games47% · 291 game
Snapfireprblms
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 74%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3