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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Yandexloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 38 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 35 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 28 games
68%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 26 games
88%

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 33 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 32 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 22 games
82%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
45%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Noticed · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
636 picks · 990 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 442 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 634 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
444 picks · 1037 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
443 picks · 269 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 483 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 515 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 575 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total62% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
Aurora Gaming 58%Team Yandex 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLorenof
48% · 57 games52% · 74 games
KezWatson
Kez
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
54% · 93 games51% · 89 games
ViperNoticed
Viper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 207 games49% · 87 games
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
Kunkka
Pugna
PugnaKaori
52% · 71 game45% · 293 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 127 games41% · 12 games
Witch DoctorMalady
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed20:44
Aurora Gaming 60%Team Yandex 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorNightfall
53% · 109 games49% · 356 games
BeastmasterWatson
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
55% · 424 games52% · 467 games
PuckChira JUNIOR
Puck
Mars
MarsWs
53% · 397 games49% · 119 games
ViperNoticed
Viper
Tiny
TinyMira
48% · 518 games49% · 196 games
Ancient ApparitionMalady
Ancient Apparition
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
47% · 329 games46% · 639 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2