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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Yandexwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 49 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 44 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 39 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 37 games
78%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 30 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 29 games
72%

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 35 games
77%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 35 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 27 games
59%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 22 games
68%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
598 picks · 881 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
495 picks · 526 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 414 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
438 picks · 300 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
409 picks · 1041 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 669 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 578 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
376 picks · 566 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total54% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:33
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Yandex 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonV-Tune
54% · 204 games54% · 249 games
Templar AssassinWatson
Templar Assassin
Viper
ViperWs
50% · 89 games54% · 292 games
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Slardar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
45% · 174 games49% · 135 games
BrewmasterDM
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyMira
41% · 402 games52% · 328 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
45% · 226 games58% · 91 game
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct32:38
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Yandex 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 59:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaV-Tune
44% · 97 games44% · 289 games
BeastmasterWatson
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckMikoto
53% · 499 games45% · 136 games
BrewmasterDM
Brewmaster
Mars
MarsWs
50% · 474 games56% · 263 games
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
50% · 460 games51% · 558 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Pugna
PugnaKaori
59% · 246 games46% · 530 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed7:26
Aurora Gaming 52%Team Yandex 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinV-Tune
48% · 187 games51% · 203 games
MedusaWatson
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
43% · 337 games52% · 115 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
48% · 204 games48% · 401 game
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Centaur Warrunner
Lion
LionMira
52% · 55 games54% · 357 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Warlock
WarlockKaori
45% · 353 games66% · 60 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 54%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3