The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC Predatorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
TNC Predator
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 23 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 16 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
425 picks · 634 bans
Gyrocopter
381 picks · 402 bans
Centaur Warrunner
370 picks · 483 bans
Crystal Maiden
367 picks · 155 bans
Pangolier
325 picks · 591 bans
Dragon Knight
323 picks · 708 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 471 bans
Rubick
319 picks · 156 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:13
Aurora Gaming 65%TNC Predator 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 1:07:49.
Game 2prediction missed9:26
Aurora Gaming 65%TNC Predator 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 34:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 65%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2