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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 47 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 43 games
63%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 38 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 34 games
79%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 29 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 25 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 24 games
71%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 22 games
73%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
594 picks · 924 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 421 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
477 picks · 516 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 294 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1056 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 579 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 566 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 671 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:21
Aurora Gaming 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
55% · 128 games56% · 217 games
Shadow FiendParker
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
45% · 392 games52% · 321 game
Centaur Warrunner33
Centaur Warrunner
Largo
LargoWs
46% · 102 games48% · 249 games
Queen of Painbzm
Queen of Pain
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
42% · 207 games49% · 216 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
48% · 259 games60% · 85 games
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct6:24
Aurora Gaming 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 22:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaV-Tune
47% · 161 game57% · 34 games
Anti-MageParker
Anti-Mage
Largo
LargoWs
51% · 61 game53% · 195 games
Shadow Fiendbzm
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
50% · 285 games51% · 167 games
Doom33
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 140 games48% · 155 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
45% · 206 games51% · 302 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed32:13
Aurora Gaming 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinV-Tune
53% · 217 games40% · 106 games
SvenParker
Sven
Largo
LargoWs
53% · 83 games48% · 96 games
Doom33
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
47% · 187 games58% · 159 games
Shadow Fiendbzm
Shadow Fiend
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
50% · 142 games49% · 125 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
57% · 69 games48% · 212 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3