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BLAST Slam VII · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 63 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 56 games
66%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 55 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 47 games
72%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 41 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 37 games
65%

Tundra Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 37 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 32 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 31 game
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 29 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 27 games
63%
Largo
Largosignature
33 · 26 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
564 picks · 353 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 568 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
460 picks · 242 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 373 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 536 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 872 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
321 picks · 809 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
310 picks · 267 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head7 – 4
Model total70% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:44
Aurora Gaming 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
47% · 195 games54% · 281 game
UrsaPure~
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
43% · 270 games51% · 395 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
48% · 193 games58% · 171 game
Largo33
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKaori
48% · 342 games58% · 151 game
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
46% · 75 games46% · 77 games
LichWhitemon
Lich
Game 2prediction correct33:15
Aurora Gaming 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
45% · 476 games53% · 242 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
56% · 150 games48% · 188 games
Dragon KnightPure~
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
46% · 231 game56% · 290 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Lion
LionKaori
53% · 189 games44% · 235 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMira
47% · 257 games53% · 348 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct34:25
Aurora Gaming 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 52:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNightfall
46% · 186 games54% · 47 games
NecrophosPure~
Necrophos
Windranger
WindrangerMikoto
57% · 161 game48% · 145 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Axe
AxeWs
45% · 131 game54% · 220 games
Monkey Kingbzm
Monkey King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKaori
54% · 318 games43% · 337 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMira
48% · 125 games52% · 172 games
LionAri
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 70%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3