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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 52 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 49 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 45 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 38 games
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 36 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 34 games
65%

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xm · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
533 picks · 326 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
499 picks · 586 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 363 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
399 picks · 217 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
394 picks · 290 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 871 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 311 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 851 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
Aurora Gaming 61%Vici Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
46% · 207 games52% · 29 games
Drow Rangershiro
Drow Ranger
Doom
DoomWs
53% · 143 games51% · 337 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
45% · 244 games51% · 57 games
Death ProphetFaith_bian
Death Prophet
Silencer
SilencerKaori
54% · 115 games55% · 167 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMira
46% · 138 games45% · 257 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed13:28
Aurora Gaming 63%Vici Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
51% · 125 games46% · 244 games
Muertashiro
Muerta
Slardar
SlardarWs
57% · 152 games50% · 80 games
SlarkXm
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
53% · 199 games49% · 257 games
AxeFaith_bian
Axe
Oracle
OracleKaori
55% · 21 game45% · 51 game
IoXinQ
Io
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
52% · 193 games44% · 58 games
Lichy`
Lich
Game 3prediction correct49:28
Aurora Gaming 63%Vici Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:09:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
48% · 180 games51% · 306 games
BeastmasterXm
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
42% · 189 games56% · 130 games
Medusashiro
Medusa
Doom
DoomWs
52% · 172 games49% · 211 games
BristlebackFaith_bian
Bristleback
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
51% · 141 game56% · 32 games
Lichy`
Lich
Lion
LionMira
47% · 59 games51% · 62 games
Nyx AssassinXinQ
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 72%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3