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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 14 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 11 games
82%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 21 game
62%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 10 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
YamSun · 8 games
63%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 8 games
38%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 7 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
514 picks · 738 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 800 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 479 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 380 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 539 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
436 picks · 1044 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
410 picks · 945 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:19
Aurora Gaming 67%Wildcard Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 22:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
62% · 77 games54% · 43 games
DazzleRCY
Dazzle
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 104 games51% · 162 games
Troll WarlordYamSun
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
47% · 122 games46% · 79 games
TidehunterFayde
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
48% · 165 games47% · 56 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Marci
MarciMira
50% · 100 games46% · 228 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct40:6
Aurora Gaming 66%Wildcard Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
47% · 124 games56% · 52 games
Queen of PainRCY
Queen of Pain
Dazzle
DazzleTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 26 games41% · 76 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracLorenof
50% · 124 games58% · 34 games
Faceless VoidFayde
Faceless Void
Warlock
WarlockPanto
48% · 76 games46% · 173 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMira
50% · 59 games55% · 74 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct29:6
Aurora Gaming 67%Wildcard Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
52% · 97 games50% · 117 games
Troll WarlordYamSun
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
50% · 189 games48% · 370 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 191 game50% · 186 games
Sand KingFayde
Sand King
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
51% · 244 games51% · 81 game
Nature's ProphetBignum
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
TuskMira
52% · 189 games45% · 156 games
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 79%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3