DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 8 games
Batridersignature
XinQ · 6 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
Miranasignature
XinQ · 6 games
Hoodwink
XinQ · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
371 picks · 324 bans
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 476 bans
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
Pangolier
274 picks · 393 bans
Mars
263 picks · 358 bans
Techies
263 picks · 180 bans
Hoodwink
259 picks · 143 bans
Magnus
251 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength64% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Aurora Gaming 38%Xtreme Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:09.
Game 2prediction correct26:25
Aurora Gaming 38%Xtreme Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 47:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 62%
Accuracy by game2 of 2