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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 37 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 24 games
54%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 28 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 26 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
55%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 21 game
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 21 game
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 21 game
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 643 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
473 picks · 422 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
409 picks · 856 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
394 picks · 449 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
385 picks · 566 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
381 picks · 338 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 531 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:10
Aurora Gaming 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNightfall
56% · 52 games47% · 138 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
53% · 425 games48% · 287 games
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 231 game46% · 289 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPanto
54% · 109 games51% · 164 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
49% · 182 games41% · 121 game
SilencerPoloson
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Aurora Gaming 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
51% · 131 game43% · 294 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
46% · 313 games44% · 188 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Bristleback
BristlebackTORONTOTOKYO
60% · 266 games44% · 404 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Tusk
TuskMira
53% · 295 games52% · 56 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPanto
62% · 102 games49% · 165 games
WarlockPoloson
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2