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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 45 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 42 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 42 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 33 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
72%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 31 game
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 28 games
82%

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 27 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
55%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 18 games
83%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 994 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
521 picks · 446 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
462 picks · 506 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
454 picks · 290 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 619 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
447 picks · 1073 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 588 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
408 picks · 489 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total62% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:24
Aurora Gaming 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
54% · 186 games48% · 155 games
KezAme
Kez
Puck
PuckLorenof
54% · 431 game56% · 539 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsWs
44% · 472 games48% · 556 games
TinyNothingToSay
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
48% · 349 games51% · 475 games
Shadow Demonfy
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
48% · 800 games51% · 513 games
RingmasterxNova
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct32:20
Aurora Gaming 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
52% · 254 games50% · 82 games
WeaverAme
Weaver
Viper
ViperLorenof
47% · 96 games55% · 302 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordWs
49% · 201 game49% · 261 game
MarsXxs
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
47% · 190 games54% · 189 games
Muertafy
Muerta
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
51% · 284 games46% · 191 game
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct29:7
Aurora Gaming 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
59% · 179 games50% · 75 games
KezAme
Kez
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
50% · 240 games52% · 305 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Viper
ViperLorenof
50% · 117 games47% · 227 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockKaori
47% · 377 games45% · 161 game
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Lion
LionMira
52% · 102 games50% · 247 games
Shadow Shamanfy
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 62%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3