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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
54%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 19 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 16 games
69%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
606 picks · 300 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
528 picks · 528 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 1092 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
361 picks · 190 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 592 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
348 picks · 390 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
346 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 259 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:7
Aurora Gaming 53%Yakult Brothers 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
44% · 167 games55% · 48 games
Anti-Mageflyfly
Anti-Mage
Slardar
SlardarMikoto
48% · 87 games50% · 130 games
LeshracEmo
Leshrac
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
42% · 192 games56% · 174 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Chen
ChenOli
53% · 100 games50% · 325 games
SnapfirePoloson
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
41% · 225 games62% · 94 games
AlchemistBoBoKa
Alchemist
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 62%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1