Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Staffwin 1:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Winline Teamloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Winline Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 636 bans
Phoenix
502 picks · 804 bans
Clockwerk
484 picks · 486 bans
Batrider
453 picks · 554 bans
Magnus
426 picks · 1018 bans
Muerta
425 picks · 368 bans
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 765 bans
Lich
389 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Staff
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Aurora Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aurora Staff 70%Winline Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Staff — the game was taken by Aurora Staff.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Staff · 70%
Series resultAurora Staff 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1