Friday Fight · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUS staffloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DOTA2.RU Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS staff
No games played over 6 months.
DOTA2.RU Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 692 bans
Phoenix
496 picks · 796 bans
Clockwerk
479 picks · 479 bans
Batrider
448 picks · 544 bans
Muerta
430 picks · 370 bans
Magnus
419 picks · 1007 bans
Bristleback
395 picks · 915 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 761 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% AVULUS staff
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% AVULUS staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:24
AVULUS staff 60%DOTA2.RU Team 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS staff — the game was taken by DOTA2.RU Team in 52:36.
Game 2prediction missed23:39
AVULUS staff 60%DOTA2.RU Team 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS staff — the game was taken by DOTA2.RU Team in 47:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS staff · 60%
Series resultDOTA2.RU Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2