Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
AVULUS staffloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ESforcewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS staff
No games played over 6 months.
ESforce
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
515 picks · 808 bans
Tiny
514 picks · 628 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 495 bans
Batrider
463 picks · 566 bans
Muerta
437 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
429 picks · 1021 bans
Gyrocopter
411 picks · 773 bans
Lich
391 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% AVULUS staff
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% AVULUS staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
AVULUS staff 50%ESforce 50%
The model gave 50% on AVULUS staff — the game was taken by ESforce.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS staff · 50%
Series resultESforce 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1