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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 37 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 18 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 17 games
29%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
38%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
dEsire · 16 games
50%

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 15 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
525 picks · 554 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 417 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 386 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 511 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
316 picks · 197 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
315 picks · 710 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
308 picks · 571 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 436 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 70%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total58% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:28
AVULUS 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
40% · 97 games60% · 48 games
LycanSSS
Lycan
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWorick
50% · 92 games50% · 158 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsXibbe
43% · 65 games53% · 29 games
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Chaos Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamandEsire
50% · 127 games57% · 95 games
Pugnakasane
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
43% · 35 games56% · 86 games
Baneswedenstrong
Bane
Game 2prediction missed24:6
AVULUS 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
57% · 83 games49% · 161 game
MedusaMunkushi~
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
48% · 273 games46% · 160 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Puck
PuckWorick
46% · 201 game43% · 179 games
TimbersawSSS
Timbersaw
Chen
ChenFly
60% · 100 games51% · 106 games
Naga Sirenkasane
Naga Siren
Marci
MarcidEsire
51% · 97 games50% · 148 games
Lionswedenstrong
Lion
Game 3prediction missed37:23
AVULUS 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 57:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
52% · 296 games56% · 248 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWorick
47% · 188 games50% · 211 games
Enchantresskasane
Enchantress
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
52% · 281 game45% · 305 games
BatriderSquad1x
Batrider
Chen
ChenFly
58% · 127 games45% · 85 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Bane
BanedEsire
51% · 78 games44% · 121 game
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 58%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3