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RES Regional Champions: Belgrade · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 17 games
76%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 17 games
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 15 games
87%

Alliance

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
357 picks · 311 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 481 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
338 picks · 463 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
324 picks · 209 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 597 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
282 picks · 458 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
268 picks · 330 bans
57%
Windranger
Windranger
263 picks · 365 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:33
AVULUS 76%Alliance 24%
The model gave 76% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Alliance in 40:48.
Game 2prediction correct15:27
AVULUS 76%Alliance 24%
The model gave 76% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 39:23.
Game 3prediction correct33:46
AVULUS 76%Alliance 24%
The model gave 76% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:17:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 76%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3