PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alone in Jungleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
Tusk
Ekki · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
Ekki · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 1 game
Alone in Jungle
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
428 picks · 358 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 455 bans
Weaver
391 picks · 833 bans
Tiny
382 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 758 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 526 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 507 bans
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 596 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
AVULUS 74%Alone in Jungle 26%
The model gave 74% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 13:47.
Game 2prediction correct37:9
AVULUS 74%Alone in Jungle 26%
The model gave 74% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 16:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 74%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2