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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Capy Baraswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 37 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 36 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 23 games
52%

Capy Baras

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
100%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Fly · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 1 game
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Lelis · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Kiritych · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 734 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 318 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
385 picks · 879 bans
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 675 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
382 picks · 1022 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 510 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Capy Baras
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:40
AVULUS 56%Capy Baras 44%
The model gave 56% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Capy Baras in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
52% · 71 game53% · 123 games
Templar AssassinKiritych
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
50% · 161 game48% · 407 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
53% · 327 games49% · 146 games
TidehunterInfernal
Tidehunter
Muerta
MuertadEsire
52% · 170 games49% · 19 games
RingmasterFly
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
49% · 89 games46% · 123 games
WindrangerLelis
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed4:18
AVULUS 56%Capy Baras 44%
The model gave 56% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Capy Baras in 27:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
54% · 77 games51% · 208 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMo13ei
52% · 314 games54% · 201 game
Sand KingCopy
Sand King
Mars
MarsXibbe
49% · 151 game54% · 194 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
MuertadEsire
45% · 183 games47% · 104 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Snapfire
SnapfireSoNNeikO
46% · 140 games48% · 158 games
WindrangerLelis
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 63%
Series resultCapy Baras 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2