PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CGCrazy Gloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
No games played over 6 months.
Crazy G
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
418 picks · 311 bans
Hoodwink
417 picks · 439 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
392 picks · 883 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 514 bans
Clockwerk
350 picks · 484 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:17
AVULUS 78%Crazy G 22%
The model gave 78% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 21:10.
Game 2prediction correct34:6
AVULUS 78%Crazy G 22%
The model gave 78% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 16:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 78%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2