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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circlewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
asdekor_r · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 18 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
39%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
35%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 22 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
42%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 19 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 17 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 14 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Fernans · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
551 picks · 834 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 368 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 642 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 580 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 763 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 584 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 545 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 480 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:22
AVULUS 55%Inner Circle 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckdualrazee
49% · 345 games53% · 142 games
Shadow Fiend423
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
51% · 172 games47% · 314 games
Dragon Knightniche
Dragon Knight
Slark
SlarkSmiling Knight
52% · 67 games45% · 49 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
46% · 255 games54% · 172 games
ChenSe
Chen
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorasdekor_r
55% · 38 games49% · 200 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct26:1
AVULUS 58%Inner Circle 42%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 25:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
49% · 441 game50% · 227 games
Ursa423
Ursa
Puck
Puckdualrazee
54% · 413 games45% · 357 games
Beastmasterniche
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
53% · 312 games37% · 52 games
Razorlaise
Razor
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorasdekor_r
61% · 49 games48% · 471 game
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWein
57% · 328 games46% · 436 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed10:30
AVULUS 57%Inner Circle 43%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 53:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
56% · 285 games51% · 360 games
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
44% · 194 games38% · 32 games
Omniknight423
Omniknight
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
58% · 150 games44% · 54 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterWein
44% · 82 games48% · 202 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Dazzle
Dazzleasdekor_r
48% · 82 games56% · 145 games
Ancient ApparitionSe
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 60%
Series resultInner Circle 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3