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RES Regional Champions: Belgrade · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Looking for Orgloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 17 games
76%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
81%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 14 games
79%

Looking for Org

Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 10 games
40%
Luna
Lunasignature
Mnz · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sacred · 8 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 458 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
341 picks · 297 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
327 picks · 449 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
321 picks · 212 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
313 picks · 565 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 460 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
264 picks · 372 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
258 picks · 320 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:27
AVULUS 60%Looking for Org 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
52% · 186 games43% · 86 games
Muertapayk
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStormstormer
56% · 144 games56% · 125 games
InvokerDarkMago
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
51% · 111 games48% · 193 games
BeastmasterSacred
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireEkki
46% · 203 games50% · 220 games
Dark WillowMatthew
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
54% · 199 games43% · 219 games
TuskYadomi
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct24:21
AVULUS 60%Looking for Org 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSmiling Knight
50% · 145 games48% · 175 games
Gyrocopterpayk
Gyrocopter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
49% · 94 games52% · 203 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
52% · 117 games46% · 139 games
BeastmasterSacred
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
58% · 334 games49% · 150 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Lion
LionEkki
51% · 198 games46% · 221 game
EnchantressYadomi
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct25:15
AVULUS 59%Looking for Org 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
60% · 145 games46% · 269 games
Morphlingpayk
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
49% · 136 games47% · 178 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXibbe
51% · 285 games54% · 71 game
BristlebackSacred
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
51% · 288 games43% · 270 games
EnchantressMatthew
Enchantress
Lion
LionEkki
55% · 162 games45% · 228 games
TuskYadomi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 62%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3