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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 14 games
79%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 14 games
86%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 11 games
82%

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 43 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 34 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 33 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 33 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
NARMAN · 28 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
52%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 27 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
340 picks · 254 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 283 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 434 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
309 picks · 518 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
305 picks · 296 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 432 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 478 bans
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
299 picks · 346 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 40%
Hero pool strength61% AVULUS
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total64% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
AVULUS 59%MOUZ 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkSmiling Knight
46% · 53 games56% · 43 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Viper
ViperStormstormer
41% · 43 games52% · 95 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
43% · 74 games53% · 87 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
52% · 198 games51% · 189 games
Enchantressbengan
Enchantress
Lion
LionEkki
52% · 110 games49% · 64 games
Keeper of the LightNARMAN
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct31:19
AVULUS 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
56% · 68 games48% · 122 games
Nature's ProphetSupream^
Nature's Prophet
Visage
VisageXibbe
45% · 25 games48% · 63 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Puck
PuckStormstormer
50% · 86 games53% · 102 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
54% · 64 games40% · 18 games
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskEkki
43% · 112 games54% · 50 games
Omniknightbengan
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 64%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2