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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 45 games
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 24 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 24 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 21 game
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 21 game
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 20 games
55%

MOUZ

Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Lowskill · 15 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Force · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
492 picks · 574 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 441 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
453 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
357 picks · 715 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
323 picks · 736 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
322 picks · 502 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 264 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
299 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total57% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:38
AVULUS 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by MOUZ in 1:09:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySmiling Knight
52% · 429 games54% · 186 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
52% · 199 games50% · 413 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaWorick
50% · 135 games45% · 171 game
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Nature's Prophet
Marci
MarcidEsire
47% · 135 games37% · 28 games
Axezeal
Axe
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
44% · 39 games58% · 139 games
Shadow ShamanEkki
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct43:15
AVULUS 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 52:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSmiling Knight
51% · 150 games48% · 86 games
AbaddonKami
Abaddon
Tiny
TinyWorick
56% · 379 games54% · 327 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingXibbe
46% · 27 games38% · 34 games
Axezeal
Axe
Rubick
RubickdEsire
51% · 182 games47% · 399 games
JakiroEkki
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockFly
54% · 152 games43% · 44 games
IoSeleri
Io
Game 3prediction correct36:30
AVULUS 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 58:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
55% · 229 games42% · 95 games
Queen of PainAbed
Queen of Pain
Lycan
LycanXibbe
50% · 60 games44% · 396 games
Beastmasterzeal
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyWorick
55% · 369 games51% · 205 games
DoomKami
Doom
Warlock
WarlockFly
45% · 121 game53% · 160 games
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamandEsire
56% · 117 games46% · 40 games
DisruptorEkki
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 57%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3