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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
41%

MOUZ

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 13 games
31%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
409 picks · 373 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
374 picks · 189 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 887 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
311 picks · 356 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 239 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
283 picks · 136 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 807 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
277 picks · 684 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total61% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:25
AVULUS 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by AVULUS in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
52% · 249 games54% · 238 games
Storm SpiritMidOne
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
41% · 255 games47% · 245 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarSabeRLight-
52% · 75 games53% · 249 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Elder Titan
Elder TitanJANTER
50% · 155 games63% · 12 games
Techiesyamich
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorEkki
52% · 192 games47% · 182 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct14:43
AVULUS 44%MOUZ 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
53% · 305 games52% · 65 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
51% · 343 games52% · 338 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarSabeRLight-
47% · 118 games43% · 176 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorEkki
53% · 229 games51% · 183 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder TitanJANTER
56% · 102 games43% · 335 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct15:35
AVULUS 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
61% · 141 game54% · 13 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Abaddon
AbaddonSmiling Knight
51% · 83 games51% · 219 games
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Nature's Prophet
Marci
MarciSabeRLight-
49% · 98 games43% · 89 games
SlardarBOOM
Slardar
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJANTER
56% · 95 games49% · 204 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorEkki
43% · 150 games49% · 42 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3