Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:3series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 48 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 25 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 24 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 23 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 21 game
Jakiro
Fly · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 20 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 28 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 24 games
Phoenix
Riddys · 23 games
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
Pucksignature
Niku · 21 game
Earthshakersignature
Zayac · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
498 picks · 578 bans
Jakiro
490 picks · 442 bans
Ringmaster
459 picks · 232 bans
Terrorblade
358 picks · 721 bans
Ancient Apparition
326 picks · 743 bans
Storm Spirit
324 picks · 503 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 267 bans
Windranger
301 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total63% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:24
AVULUS 43%Natus Vincere Junior 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSmiling Knight
Doomgotthejuice
Dark SeerXibbe
TimbersawNiku
InvokerWorick
Pangolierpma
RingmasterdEsire
WarlockRiddys
JakiroFly
RubickZayac
Game 2prediction correct10:20
AVULUS 42%Natus Vincere Junior 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Morphlinggotthejuice
TinyWorick
Pangolierpma
TidehunterXibbe
Monkey KingNiku
RubickdEsire
WarlockRiddys
DazzleFly
RikiZayac
Game 3prediction missed26:18
AVULUS 40%Natus Vincere Junior 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by AVULUS in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Svengotthejuice
Dark SeerXibbe
PangolierNiku
TinyWorick
Underlordpma
DisruptorFly
RubickZayac
TuskdEsire
RingmasterRiddys
Game 4prediction correct29:36
AVULUS 42%Natus Vincere Junior 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 1:12:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaSmiling Knight
Doomgotthejuice
WarlockFly
Death ProphetNiku
UndyingXibbe
Centaur Warrunnerpma
TinyWorick
BatriderZayac
RubickdEsire
RingmasterRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4