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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 35 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 35 games
51%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 30 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 28 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 28 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
68%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 27 games
41%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 23 games
74%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 19 games
37%
Muerta
Muerta
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
474 picks · 703 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 753 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
358 picks · 365 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
354 picks · 212 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 637 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
335 picks · 662 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 423 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
315 picks · 484 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total63% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:20
AVULUS 46%Nigma Galaxy 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSmiling Knight
58% · 79 games51% · 236 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingXibbe
63% · 128 games49% · 144 games
MarciGhost
Marci
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMo13ei
46% · 227 games40% · 180 games
TerrorbladeNo!ob
Terrorblade
Tinker
TinkerFly
50% · 54 games45% · 47 games
IoGH
Io
Tusk
TuskdEsire
52% · 208 games48% · 89 games
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed31:14
AVULUS 43%Nigma Galaxy 57%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
41% · 232 games52% · 263 games
BeastmasterSumaiL
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingMo13ei
57% · 230 games51% · 135 games
Phantom AssassinGhost
Phantom Assassin
Tinker
TinkerFly
52% · 90 games49% · 93 games
TimbersawNo!ob
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
51% · 191 game51% · 106 games
WarlockGH
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterdEsire
45% · 115 games50% · 261 game
JakiroOmaR
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct7:25
AVULUS 45%Nigma Galaxy 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 26:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
54% · 214 games47% · 235 games
Dragon KnightGhost
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarMo13ei
50% · 95 games48% · 41 game
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Tinker
TinkerFly
51% · 101 game51% · 158 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
45% · 169 games53% · 203 games
JakiroOmaR
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterdEsire
51% · 126 games50% · 68 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 63%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3