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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 26 games
35%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
53%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
50%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 19 games
37%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 17 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shad · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
450 picks · 425 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
446 picks · 225 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
353 picks · 939 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
298 picks · 148 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 225 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
285 picks · 660 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
282 picks · 667 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total55% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:24
AVULUS 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
51% · 306 games51% · 31 game
SpectreShad
Spectre
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
49% · 247 games52% · 397 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
47% · 250 games49% · 323 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroThiolicor
52% · 277 games51% · 182 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerJANTER
49% · 162 games51% · 309 games
WarlockLelis
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed35:13
AVULUS 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
46% · 63 games41% · 41 game
BroodmotherShad
Broodmother
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
51% · 302 games52% · 187 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
47% · 212 games56% · 251 game
Monkey KingStojkov
Monkey King
Chen
ChenJANTER
59% · 134 games50% · 289 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkThiolicor
44% · 171 game50% · 114 games
SilencerLelis
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 55%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2