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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 15 games
80%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 12 games
83%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 10 games
90%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
60%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 9 games
89%

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 19 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 17 games
41%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 13 games
31%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 13 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 12 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 276 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 454 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
318 picks · 368 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 415 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 468 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
292 picks · 510 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 56%
Hero pool strength63% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
AVULUS 77%One Move 23%
The model gave 77% on AVULUS — the game was taken by One Move.
Game 2prediction correct53:43
AVULUS 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 58:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
47% · 55 games55% · 164 games
TimbersawSSS
Timbersaw
Sniper
SniperStormstormer
45% · 99 games52% · 209 games
MorphlingWoE
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
48% · 116 games54% · 185 games
Primal BeastDifference
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderEkki
47% · 259 games60% · 51 game
OmniknightRein
Omniknight
Tusk
TuskSoNNeikO
45% · 168 games49% · 88 games
Marcinot me
Marci
Game 3prediction missed14:34
AVULUS 68%One Move 32%
The model gave 68% on AVULUS — the game was taken by One Move in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
52% · 301 game43% · 167 games
LinaWoE
Lina
Doom
DoomXibbe
54% · 211 games50% · 445 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierStormstormer
48% · 343 games52% · 175 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Windranger
WindrangerEkki
51% · 258 games48% · 230 games
Snapfirenot me
Snapfire
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSoNNeikO
55% · 140 games47% · 236 games
TuskRein
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 77%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3